|
 |
|
|
|
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125)
Thu Jul 3 '08 2:05p
The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the last two games of this four-game series with the Houston Astros, and we look for LA to win the road series this afternoon, given this pitching matchup.
Chad Billingsley deserves much better than his 7-7 record, considering that he has a nice 3.38 ERA in 96 innings, and he is averaging better than one strikeout per innings with 102 punch-outs. He has held his fine form with a sparkling 1.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last three starts, and he has done his best pitching in the daytime this year, with a 2.83 ERA in six starts under the sun.
Meanwhile, Brandon Backe is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA and a terrible 1.61 WHIP for the year, and the worst part is that he is not really improving. He has just one Quality Start in his last six outings after getting beat up for six earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings last Saturday night.
Finally, the Dodgers also rank third in the major leagues with a 3.05 bullpen ERA, while the Astros are at number 22 with a 4.19 pen ERA.
MLB Free Pick: Dodgers -125
|
|
|
Washington Nationals (140)
Thu Jul 3 '08 7:10p
We cashed a nice ticket playing against John Lannan of the Washington Nationals in his last start, feeling that he had been pitching over his head, but we actually think this is a nice spot for Lannan to succeed at a nice price vs. the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds have struggled vs. left-handers in recent years, and after showing some improvement this season, they have reverted to their old ways lately, batting just .212 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games. Lannan did face the Reds once last season, and he pitched well allowing two runs in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 Nationals victory.
Now we have no doubt that Johnny Cueto will be a stud in this league for years to come, and he is certainly in raging current form, allowing only three earned runs in 18.1 innings over his last three starts. But still, he is just 6-8 with a 4.68 ERA for the season, so we are not sure he is quite worthy yet of this much favoritism.
We will go for the value play here, as we look for Lannan to regain his good for vs. a lefty-laden Reds lineup.
MLB Free Pick: Nationals +140
|
|
|
|
|
Free Picks from other expert handicappers
|
|
|
|
|
Alex Smart |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
New York Yankees (-130)
Thu Jul 3 '08 7:05p
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Game Time: 7/3/2008 7:05:00 PM
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: The Boston Red Sox just got swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in a 3 game set down in Florida, and now they have to come into the unfriendly confines, of the Bronx Zoo to play their long time rivals the NY Yankees. Needless to say, getting knocked down in 3 straight to TB was a blow to their pride and confidence. Thats not a good omen for their chances tonight, against a Yankees team that smashed out 16 hits and 18 runs in double digit win last night against Texas. Bottom line: With the Yankees sending one of their most consistent starting pitchers, Andy Pettitte to the hill tonight,I expect the Zoo crew have the edge! Final notes & Key Trends: Pettitte is 4-0 in his last four starts along with stingy 1.00 ERA. Play on the Yankees . Red Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series. Yankees are 5-0 in Pettittes last 5 starts and 4-0 in his 4 starts vs the Red Sox. Play on the NY Yankees
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Akmens |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
San Francisco Giants (-135)
Thu Jul 3 '08 7:05p
The Cubbies go with a guy, Sean Gallagher, who has made 5 career starts on the road - and his team has yet to walk off the field smiling in any of those starts.
Contrast that with the Giants starter, Tim Lincecum, a fine young arm, whose team has won 5 of his last 7 starts at home. Which is some major accomplishment given that the Giants have that horrific 15-26 home record.
Lincecum's just been a profitable pitcher -period. If you had bet him in all of his starts this season, you're up +6 net winners already - and that factors in the vig.
But that's what you should expect from a guy with a 2.38 ERA - which is the 2nd-best in all of MLB.
Another point is how effective Lincecum's been vs. the Cubs: he's had 15 K's in just 14 1/3 IP.
Now you might understand why Lincecum leads the NL with 114 K's - and why teams like the Yankees with their bottomless pockets should get a guy like this instead of parading a procession of washed-up has-beens or never-did-a-thing-wannabe's - and then scratching their heads when they lose.
GO WITH THE GIANTS -135 IN THIS 7:05PM EDT GAME (which makes it a day-game in the Bay area)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
