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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, January 4, 2005
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Staying Home In The NFL Playoffs
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Most NFL coaches have their teams fighting right until the end of the
regular season in an attempt to secure home field in some if not all Playoff
games.
History dictates that this is significant, especially for
bettors! You see, since 1985, ALL PLAYOFF HOME TEAMS are 141-58, 71.3 %
straight up, and more importantly, 108-84-7, 56.3 % against the spread!
Home underdogs have been especially lethal in the post season, going 14-9-2,
60.9 % ATS including an amazing 14-11 straight up. In other words, every
home underdog that has covered the number since 1985 has won the game outright,
suggesting that the Money Line is the way to go in these situations.
What follows is a list of our favorite NFL Playoff angles that we have been
tracking. As you will see, the overwhelming majority of them favor the home
team (All stated records are ATS):
NFL PLAYOFF GAMES ONLY SINCE
1985
Play the UNDER if the game line is less than -3 (30-10,
75.0%): There are no qualifying plays in the Wild Card round this
week, but keep an eye on this in the coming weeks.
Play ON any
team that has lost its last 2 games ATS (30-11, 73.2%): This angle
will be put to the test this week, as there are qualifiers in ALL 4 GAMES!
There are two home qualifiers (Seattle, Indianapolis) and two on the road
(New York Jets, Minnesota).
Play the OVER if at least one of
the teams has won 4 in a row S/U 69-37, 65.1%): There are no qualifying
games this week, but the OVER in the Pittsburgh game next week would be the
play.
Play ON any Home Grass Team (40-25, 61.5%):
Apparently, teams that play their home games on grass are better equipped to
withstand the winter elements in January. Three teams qualify this weekend:
Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay.
Play AGAINST any Underdog
coming off of an ATS Win (81-55, 59.6%): Since the home team is favored
more often in the playoffs, this is another angle that generally favors them.
The two qualifiers this week are Seattle over a St. Louis team that won as an
underdog last week and Indianapolis over a Denver team that beat the same
Colts last week when Indy played without their regulars.
Play
AGAINST any Road team coming off of an ATS Win (85-58, 59.4%): Since
all four home teams are favored this week, this angle spits out the exact
same two plays as the previous angle: Seattle and Indianapolis.
Play AGAINST any Road team that won its last game S/U by 7 points or more
(46-28, 62.2%): The only qualifying play this week is Indianapolis
over a Denver team that beat them 33-14 in the regular season finale.
Play AGAINST any Road team that played on the road in its last game (49-30,
62.0%): This angle says to play on San Diego over a Jets team that ended
the season at St. Louis and on Green Bay over a Minnesota squad that closed
out the year at Washington.
Play ON any team coming off of an
ATS Loss (66-43, 60.6%): This is another of those rare angles here
where the road team has a chance to qualify. There are four qualifiers this
week, with two at home (Seattle, Indianapolis) and two on the road (Jets,
Minnesota).
Play ON any Favorite that is favored by between
7 and 9 ½ points (32-21, 60.4%): There are currently no
qualifiers this week,but keep an eye on some late line movement.
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