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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, December 14, 2004
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NFL Home Dogs In Last 3 Weeks
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Well, we are now down to the tail end of another NFL season, a time of year
when you will oftentimes find a playoff contender going on the road vs. an
also-ran. The natural instinct for most bettors would be to back the road
favorite in this instance, as they are the only team that has something to
gain with a triumph.
While this sounds logical in theory, the fact is that the raw numbers
do not bear this out to be true! In fact, it is the home underdogs that have
flourished in the last three weeks of the season going all the way back to
1985, going a hefty 141-106-10 57.1 % against the spread! We saw some
memorable home upsets in the final three weeks of last season, such as
Arizona knocking the Vikings from the playoffs on the final play of the
season, or the Lions beating the Rams as 12-point underdogs in a critical
December game. The point is that while the home team may be out of the
playoffs, they still have loads of pride and often treat these late-season
games vs. those in contention as THEIR playoffs.
The concept of line value is also evident late in the year, as
oddsmakers inflate the lines on the road favorites still in playoff
contention, knowing that the general public will bet these teams at
practically any number. Thus, it is not surprising that the success of
home underdogs over the last three weeks increases as the lines get
higher. Here is a breakdown by point spread range (all records are
ATS):
NFL HOME UNDERDOGS LAST 3 WEEKS ONLY - 1985-2003
+1 to +2.5: 30-27-1, 52.6%
+3 to +6.5: 67-52-7, 56.3%
+7 to +9.5: 30-19-1, 61.2%
+10 or more: 14-8-1, 63.6%
ALL: 141-106-10, 57.1%
Every single point spread range has produced a profit since 1985,
albeit just a small one for home dogs in the +1 to +2.5 range. However,
if we only played on home underdogs of +3 or more, our cumulative record
improves to 111-79-9, 58.4 % ATS, one of the better long-term
percentages we have seen! Of course it takes some courage to play teams
like San Francisco for example as home underdogs to say a Philadelphia,
but you will definitely be going against the public and you have a better
than 58 % success rate in your corner.
Next we decided to look at home FAVORITES over the last three weeks
of each season since 1985, and these teams came in at a nondescript
268-248-11, 51.9 % ATS overall. However, a peak at the point spread
ranges for these teams reveal that double digit home favorites, a category
we usually stay away from, have actually been an excellent investment at
this time of year!
NFL HOME FAVORITES LAST 3 WEEKS ONLY - 1985-2003
-1 to -2.5: 45-34, 57.0%
-3 to -6.5: 113-129-9, 46.7%
-7 to -9.5: 59-51-1, 53.6%
-10 or more: 51-34-1, 60.0%
ALL: 268-248-11, 51.9%
Apparently, those same big underdog also-rans that perform so well
at home do not have the same desire on the road vs. playoff contenders.
In any event, if we focused only on home favorites of -7 or more, we would
have a cumulative record of 110-85-2, 56.4 % ATS. While that is a
high enough winning percentage to earn a living on, the 60 % success
rate of double digit favorites is simply out of this world.
To recap, history tells us that the two best bets over the last three
weeks of any NFL season are home underdogs of +3 or more and home favorites
of -10 or more. Let us keep an eye on this here in 2004 and hopefully build
up a nice bankroll for the post season!
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