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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, December 7, 2004
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NBA: Who Needs Rest?
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It has been a time-honored tradition for both professional and amateur
handicappers to bet against NBA teams playing their second game in as many
nights due to the obvious fatigue factor. However, could it now be that
oddsmakers have overcompensated for this and that the team playing the
second of back-to-back nights now offers some nice value?
After all, from 1990 until the end of last season, teams playing
without rest went 3,807-4,039-163, 48.5 % ATS. Suddenly in 2004,
teams playing the back end of back-to-backs have gone 80-68-6, 54.1
%! Just about every no-rest angle that has worked in the past has
blown up this season, as the bookmakers have come to recognize just how
sophisticated the gambling population has become.
One popular angle over the years has been to play against any road
team playing at Denver with no rest, obviously because of the altitude
factor. Well, teams that fit this profile this season have gone 3-2-1
ATS despite the fact that the Nuggets have a talented team these days.
Another popular angle used to be to play against Eastern Conference teams
playing the second of back-to-back nights vs. Western opponents. Well,
East teams that fit this profile have gone 14-13, 51.9 % ATS this
year, which is a money loser whether you play with or against the angle.
The bottom line is that the bookmakers are now so sharp in incorporating
the fatigue factor into the lines that it is now almost starting to
become a non-factor when handicapping games.
On the other hand, teams NOT playing on back-to-back nights have
gone just 190-202-16, 48.5 % ATS this season. Interestingly, HOME
teams that have had at least one day off are a dismal 99-121-9, 45.0
% against the number! Road teams playing with rest have been much
more successful at 91-81-7, 52.9 %, which would turn just a nominal
profit. It has gotten to the point where a team playing without rest
actually merits a closer look when facing a rested team, especially with
the built-in added line value.
Just about the only time the no-rest theory has held up this season
is in divisional games, where teams playing the second of back-to-back
nights are just 15-21-4 ATS. However, this percentage rises when the
supposedly tired team faces a conference non-division foe (47-42-6, 52.8%),
and it rises even further in non-conference games (33-26, 55.9%). The best
investment so far this season has been a Western Conference team with no
rest playing a non-conference game vs. the East, as these West teams have
gone 19-13, 59.4 % in this circumstance. This includes a
scintillating 7-1 record both S/U and ATS when the West team is at home!
A rundown of the remaining games in December where a Western
Conference team playing the second of back-to-back nights is playing at
home vs. an Eastern opponent appears below.
December 17
Washington at LA Lakers
December 18
Washington at Phoenix
December 28
Philadelphia at Seattle
Make sure to give the hosting west teams a long hard look in all
of these matchups!
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