December 13, 2006 - Gettin Picky

How would you like to be an NFL prognosticator this season? These professional haircuts have to go on national TV week-in and week-out throughout the NFL regular and post-season and put their football reputations out there for all to see. What we’re seeing right now is they are getting their butts kicked. It would be almost too painful to watch if it wasn’t for Michael Irvin. Seeing him screw up regularly is one of life’s simple pleasures.

However, who can blame him for being so wrong so often? This season is making almost everyone look nearly as foolish as he does. (Accent on the “nearly”)

The once Super Bowl certain Indianapolis Colts started out 9-0, then an opposing coach made a discovery. They cannot stop the run. Since then they have lost for the third time in four weeks, the last time giving up 375 rushing yards. Super Not.

Who was looking like they were going to take their place? Maybe the New England Patriots, until they got smoked 21-0 by the Miami Dolphins, who were touted by some as perhaps a Super Bowl team in pre-season until they started 1-6, but are now almost inexplicably 6-7. The Titans (?!?) are on their way up, winning four straight. My AFC pick, the Denver Broncos are on their way down losing four in a row.

I could go through the rest, however the AFC is so tight, with three weeks remaining in the regular season, 13 of 16 teams remain in the playoff hunt. The San Diego Chargers are the lone team among the 16 to have clinched a postseason berth.

Pick that! Predict that!

In the NFC at may appear to be a little easier, but it ain’t really. Do you remember that once upon a time the Giants won five in a row? In New York they sure don’t. Yet they remain in the wild card chase with the Philadelphia Eagles – who we all knew were out of the playoff hunt after losing Donovan McNabb a few weeks back right? The Falcons are still in it – that’s despite losing to both Detroit and Cleveland – a neat trick considering how truly awful both teams are.

At 9-4, the Dallas Cowboys have the second-best record in the conference. One week ago, I read what appeared to be a Super Bowl preview article on Bill Parcells and “America’s Team.” That was before they were stomped by the real America’s team, the Saints, but good.

"This game’s a humbling game," Parcells mentioned afterward.

All the talking heads nod numbly in agreement.

That leaves the Chicago Bears on top who have Tampa Bay, Detroit and Green Bay left on the schedule. In theory, they should run the table. In theory that is because their quarterback, Rex Grossman, the game before last had a QB rating of 1.3. Personally, I didn’t think a 1.3 rating was even possible. He completed only 6 of 19 passes for 34 yards and threw three interceptions - giving him 17 for the season. Yet on Monday night, despite Michael Irvin’s insistence that he should be benched, Rex’s Bears won and he personally had 13 completions in 23 attempts for 200 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, producing a 114.4 passer rating.
Does that make Michael Irvin look stupid? Yes it does! And that’s a good thing.

However, this season’s staggering shifts are messing with everyone.

Chris Schultz is a fabulous football man, inside and out. I first got to know him when I played against him in high school. He was the guy who was scoring touchdowns. I was the guy on the ground after he ran me over. He went on a full ride to the University of Arizona. He was drafted and had a successful career in the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys and in the CFL the Toronto Argonauts. After his playing career was ended by a ruined knee, he coached football, and eventually ended up on air at The Sports Network, TSN, ESPN’s broadcast partner in the Great White North. And to everyone’s surprise, including his, he turned out to be Canada’s leading football analyst.

I had this great idea when we worked together at TSN that he should do the NFL picks on the website. We’d call it “Schultz against the World,” and the website users would get to go head-to-head against him. Over the years, I had asked several so-called experts in other sports to make their picks public on air, and all refused worrying how, if they came out all wrong, it would impact their image. Not Schultz. Not your typical talking head in so many ways (he’s 6’9” tall for one) he agreed instantly.

Either naiveté, or the fact that he simply didn’t care, since 1998, he’s been putting his football reputation on the line week-in and week-out through the NFL regular and post-seasons.

Up until this season, he was more than respectable. He was dominant. The casual fan simply could not match his expertise. This season however he’s 91-117 against the spread where the World is 100-108.

It’s eating him up. He’s agonizing over his picks now, concerned that he’s letting down all those who follow his advice. All of this on national TV with millions watching.

Seeing a smart, nice and funny grown man, or in Shultz’s case - overgrown man, squirm is not very pleasant.

In this case, if only he could be like Michael Irvin.

Cheers - Gavin McDougald - AKA Couch

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