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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, December 21, 2004
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CBB Top 10 ATS Teams
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We are now well enough into the 2004 NCAA Basketball season to get a
gauge on which teams are overrated by the oddsmakers and which ones are
undervalued.
Among the overvalued teams are Wake Forest and Gonzaga. Both have
excellent records on the court (Wake Forest 9-1, Gonzaga 8-1), but they
have burned the money of their supporters so far. Wake is 3-6-1 against
the spread, while the Bullgogs are 3-6 vs. the number. Some other notable
teams that have winning records but have been poor investments are Michigan
(6-5 S/U, 2-7 ATS), Missouri (6-4, 3-6) and Pepperdine (7-3, 3-6).
On the other hand, there are several teams that continue to exceed
expectations, and these are the ones that are worth following until the
bookmakers make the necessary adjustments. Here is a list of the Top 10
ATS teams in the country through games of Sunday, December 19, 2004:
1 - Bowling Green (5-0 ATS): The Falcons are one of only two
teams in the nation with at least 5 lined games that has yet to lose ATS.
They covered in a season opening loss to DePaul, and have gone on to win
their last 5 games S/U by an average of +16.6 points per game.
2 - Illinois (4-0-1 ATS): This is the other perfect ATS team,
although they did Push vs. Oregon. Illinois played 4 cupcakes early, but
they have proven themselves in their lined wins, beating Gonzaga, Wake
Forest, Arkansas and Georgetown by an average of 15.5 points.
3 - Duke (6-1 ATS): The Blue Demons are off to an 8-0 S/U
start winning all of their games by a whopping average of 27.5 points!
They have passed their two biggest tests, covering at home vs. Michigan
State and overcoming a 12-point deficit vs. Oklahoma to win by 11 points
going away.
T3 - Utah State (6-1 ATS): Now THIS is exactly the kind of
team we love, a quality low-profile squad that continuously slips under the
radar. The Aggies have defeated BYU twice and they blew out a decent Utah
team by 26 points, in addition to a quality win over Northwestern.
5 - Oklahoma State (5-1 ATS): The Cowboys have defeated all
comers so far, going a perfect 8-0 S/U. They have balanced out a relatively
soft schedule with two quality wins in hostile territory, vs. Syracuse at
Madison Square Garden and at UNLV.
T5 - Texas (5-1 ATS): Ironically, the best effort by the
Longhorns this season may have come in defeat! They battled Wake Forest
right down to the wire on the road before losing 89-88, easily covering
the 8-point spot.
T5 - Colorado (5-1 ATS): The Buffaloes have been in practically
every game this season, which is a good sign for a team that usually struggles
when they leave the high altitude of home. They are 2-1 ATS on the road,
including an outright upset of a pretty good California team.
8 - North Carolina (7-2 ATS): This has been a team on a mission
losing their opener at Santa Clara. They have since won 8 consecutive games
S/U, winning by an average of 24.8 points! They also served notice in their
ACC opener, going on the road and routing Virginia Tech by 34 points.
T8 - Ohio State (7-2 ATS): While many people expected this team
to improve under Thad Matta, we are surprised that they have turned things
around this quickly. They quieted most of their skeptics with a road win
at Texas Tech vs. a team that has devoured non-conference foes at home
during the Knight Era.
10 - Portland (6-2 ATS): Score one for the minor conferences
here as the Pilots crack the Top 10, covering vs. such major conference
schools as Northwestern and Oregon State. Their WORST defeat of the season
has been by 3 points, as Portland is just 7 points away from an unfathomable
9-0 S/U start!
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