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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Saturday, January 22, 2005
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An Early Look At The RPI
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We are now almost through the month of January, and soon everyone
will be concerned with the dreaded RPI, one of the most crucial factors
the NCAA Basketball Tournament Committee looks at when determining
at-large berths for the tournament in March.
For those of you that may have forgotten, RPI is a formula that
incorporates three factors: the team winning percentage, the winning
percentage of their opponents, and the winning percentage of the opponents
of their opponents. While the official RPI rankings are not released to
the general public, the formula for determining RPI is pretty well known,
and we have applied it to every Division I team in the country. So
without further ado, here are the Top 10 RPI teams through games of
Monday, January 24 (RPI in parenthesis):
1 - KANSAS (.707): It may be surprising to some that a team
that just got blown out by Villanova grades out as the top RPI team in
the country, especially when there are still three unbeaten teams. However,
the fact remains that the Jayhawks have gone 14-1 despite facing the
toughest schedule in the country, as their opponents have an incredible
winning percentage of .680! Big wins over Wake Forest at home and Kentucky
on the road more than offset that loss at Villanova to this point.
2 - DUKE (.675): The Blue Devils are a perfect 15-0, but they
only come in second due to the fact that their opponents are winning at a
.570 clip, which while very good still lags behind the performance of the
Kansas opponents. However, Duke does have the potential to move up if they
keep on winning, as their opponents winning percentage is sure to increase
as they go through the grueling ACC schedule.
3 - ILLINOIS (.664): The second of the unbeatens at 19-0, the
Illini are held back somewhat by the .549 winning percentage of their
opponents. While this team is indeed capable of going unbeaten for the whole
year, they still need one of the teams above them to lose in order to move up
in the RPI. This is simply because the teams in the Big Ten are not as strong
percentage-wise as the teams in the ACC and Big Twelve. The first real test
for Illinois will be a road encounter at Wisconsin on Tuesday.
4 - WAKE FOREST (.663): The Demon Deacons are 16-2, but because
their opponents have a .601 winning percentage to this point, that is enough
to keep then ahead of unbeaten Boston College. This is another case where
playing in the ACC has the built-in advantage of automatically improving
strength-of-schedule, so as long as the Deacons do not stumble down the road,
they should end up in the Top 4 even if BC goes unblemished.
5 - BOSTON COLLEGE (.660): This team should have a chip on their
collective shoulder as they are by far the least respected of the unbeaten
teams at 16-0. However, the Big East is very top-heavy with this team and
Syracuse, as there is a tremendous drop-off after that. Therefore, this is
another team that needs the teams ahead of them to flounder in order to move
up, as the .545 winning percentage of the Eagles opponents just does not
cut it right now.
6 - OKLAHOMA STATE (.656): The Cowboys got knocked down a notch
by their loss at Oklahoma on Monday, but unlike Boston College, the Cowboys
always have the potential top move up while playing a Big Twelve schedule.
Their opponents are winning at an excellent .635 clip right now, so there is
always a chance that Oklahoma State can leapfrog BC even if both teams keep
on winning.
7 - ARIZONA (.654): While the Pac-10 is not considered one of the
elite conferences in the country, a tough non-conference slate accounts for the
fact that the Wildcats opponents have a .609 win rate. However, that percentage
is sure to fall as Arizona gets deeper into their conference schedule, so this
team may have to win out just to have a chance to stay in the top 10.
8 - OKLAHOMA (.653): This is a team on the rise, as their win over
Oklahoma State will attest to. A hot team that plays in the Big Twelve is a hot
commodity, so this may be one of the darlings of the committee come selection
time, and they may bypass Arizona on the RPI as early as next week.
9 - WASHINGTON (.651): This is another atypical Pac-10 team in that
their opponents have a good .583 winning percentage. However, unlike an Arizona
team that has posted some quality non-conference wins, the Huskies fell short
losing at Gonzaga in what may end up becoming their most pivotal game of the
season from an RPI perspective, especially with only conference games on their
schedule here on out.
10 - NORTH CAROLINA (.650): Losing at Wake Forest may have hurt
the Tar Heels winning percentage, but that should be easily overcome as they
get deeper into ACC play. As long as Carolina keeps on winning, the Top 10 RPI
stay for Washington may be short-lived.
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