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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, February 22, 2005
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’Added’ Value In CBB
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One of the major changes on the NCAA Basketball betting board in
recent seasons has been a big increase in the amount of Added Games.
These are games involving teams from minor conferences that were impossible
to get a betting line on until just a few years ago. These games usually have
considerably lower betting limits than the games on the main Vegas board,
but the shrewd bettor can still take advantage of some soft lines, as these
contests are not scrutinized nearly as closely as the marquee games.
Some added teams have made noise in the NCAA Tournament in recent
seasons. Schools such as Valparaiso, College of Charleston, Manhattan and
Hampton have all won tournament games, while others like East Tennessee State
have thrown major scares into major conference schools, so these added teams
are not without quality. There are also added teams that outperform the main
board teams from an ATS standpoint, and these low-profile schools are the
ones that you want to follow in order to build up your bankroll.
Here are the Top 5 added teams on the ATS board this year through
games of February 20 (All records are ATS):
1 - SE Missouri State (15-5, 75.0%) - The Indians may be just
11-12 straight up, but they have certainly been competitive in all of their
games, and they are actually outscoring their opponents by an average of 2.0
points per game. They are 7-2 ATS as a favorite this season despite that
narrow average winning margin, so this is a team that beats the teams they
are supposed to beat and hangs tough vs. stiffer competition. They are also
6-1 ATS at home, losing only to Tennessee Tech, and they covered the number
vs. a very good Southern Illinois team in non-conference play.
2 - Marist (14-5, 73.7%) - This is another money making team
that has a losing record SU, currently sitting at 11-13. The Red Foxes have
been a great bet in virtually any situation, going 7-1 ATS at home, 7-4 on
the road, 6-1 as a favorite and 8-4 as an underdog. Furthermore, they are
a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home underdog as well as 2-0 as a road favorite.
Their most notable opponent was Notre Dame, and the Foxes covered that
contest losing 88-73 as 20-point underdogs.
3 - Davidson (14-7, 66.7%) - This is the first added team we
have discussed that has a legitimate shot at making the NCAA Tournament field,
and they would make a dangerous match-up for most of the upper seeds. The
Wildcats are 16-7 SU this season, and they have not minded traveling one
bit, going 8-3 SU and a sparkling 9-2, 81.8 % ATS on the road. They
have been like money in the bank when getting points, going 7-1 ATS as an
underdog losing only at St. Josephs. Davidson has already beaten Missouri
and covered vs. Duke this season, so this team may be prepared to spring
an upset or two if they go dancing.
4 - Appalachian State (13-7, 65.0%) - The Mountaineers are a
modest 12-10 SU overall, but they have had a very strong home court going
9-1 SU and 7-2, 77.8 % ATS. They are also over .500 ATS on the road
at 6-5 despite their 3-9 SU road mark. This had been one of the hottest
ATS teams in the nation until they lost to NC Greensboro last Saturday, as
that snapped a remarkable 10-game ATS winning streak. The most notable ATS
cover for the Mountaineers this season came on the road at Virginia early
in the season.
5 - Tennessee Tech (12-8, 60.0%) - We recommend betting the
Golden Eagles at home only as they are a sparkling 11-1 SU and 6-2, 75
% ATS in their own building, as opposed to 3-10 SU and 6-6 ATS on
the road. That being said, their two most notable covers this season
ironically both came on the road, sliding under big double-digit spreads
at Kentucky and Miami Florida.
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