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LT’s SportsBeat
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By the LT Profits Sports Group
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Tuesday, March 15, 2005
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8 Potential Bracket Busters
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At long last, the field for the 2005 NCAA Basketball Tournament has
been announced, and we are now ready for what many people consider to be
the most exciting month of the year in sports.
One of the biggest surprises to many was that Washington secured the
fourth number one seed, ahead of such powerhouses as Wake Forest and Oklahoma
State. While the Huskies were considered a darkhorse for a top seed entering
this past weekend, we may be in the minority in our belief that if things
fall into place, Washington actually has a chance to go the furthest in this
tournament of any of the one seeds! This is mainly because we think the Huskies
match up well with their biggest danger Wake Forest, while the other top seeds
all have one or two or maybe even three teams in their region capable of
knocking them off.
However, that is enough talk about the upper echelon teams. The real
fun in filling out the tournament brackets is finding the lower seeded teams
that are capable of springing an upset or two, or maybe finding one with the
capability of reaching the Final Four and beyond. What follows is a list of
two teams from each region seeded 4th or lower that we feel has the potential
to do some serious damage either early on or down the line (number in
parenthesis is seed):
CHICAGO REGION
ALABAMA (5): The Crimson Tide are 24-7 and won the Western Division
of the SEC, a conference that we feel is comparatively underrated right now.
Sure, the ACC and Big East may be deeper as evidenced by the number of teams
each conference has in this tournament, but the best teams of the SEC can compete
with anyone, and this may be a conference playing with a collective chip on
its shoulder. The Tide can beat you is so many ways, as they shoot their
three-pointers very well, have a strong inside presence in Jermareo Davidson
who was a rebounding machine in the SEC Tournament, and play very good defense.
Remember that this is a senior-laden team that reached the Elite 8 last season
before losing to eventual champion Connecticut, and Alabama is just one team
capable of shocking Illinois in this region.
TEXAS (8): On the other hand, Illinois may not even get to face
Alabama if Texas has anything to say about it, as the Horns would meet the
Illini in the Second Round if the seeding holds up. There was actually some
doubt as to whether or not Texas would be in this tournament entering the
final weekend of the regular season, but the Longhorns answered all of their
critics by going into Oklahoma State and handing the Cowboys their only home
loss of the season. Sure Texas promptly got knocked out in the first round of
the Big Twelve Tournament by Colorado, but they were probably still suffering
from a post-Cowboys hangover, and you know they will be fully focused for
every game going forward. Also, as great as Illinois is, we still feel that
this was a down year for the Big Ten, so we do look for them to stumble at
some point before the Final Four. That point may be as early as the Second
Round vs. these battle-tested Longhorns.
ALBUQUERQUE REGION
WEST VIRGINIA (7): While everyone is focusing on teams such as
Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Syracuse out of the Big East, these Mountaineers
showed just how dangerous they can be in the Big East Tournament, going all
the way to the finals before falling to Syracuse. This is an excellent shooting
team that usually has four guys on the court capable of hitting three-pointers,
and that will be key to their success (or lack thereof) in the Big Dance. It
certainly helps that they will always have a day off between games, as this
looked like a tired club in the Big East Championship game. Also, after winning
at such difficult road venues as Pittsburgh, North Carolina State and LSU this
season, we do not expect the Mountaineers to back down in their expected
second-round match-up with Wake Forest. If Kevin Pittsnogle continues the
deadly three-point shooting he displayed the second half of the year, Wake may
not know what hit them and may be in line for an early shocking upset!
TEXAS TECH (8): This is another darkhorse that impressed in the
Big Twelve Tournament, beating Oklahoma rather handily and then taking
Oklahoma State down to the wire. They have gotten excellent guard play all
season, as Ronald Moss shot an impressive 55.0 % from the field while
Jarrius Jackson set a Red Raiders record by recording 64 steals, and he is
also a three-point threat. In fact, Texas Tech as a team is shooting 40.1
% from beyond the arc despite employing a motion offense that is not
normally conducive to outside shooting. If the guards continue to play well,
and there is no reason to believe they will not, coach Bobby Knight may go
the furthest in this tournament since his glory days at Indiana.
SYRACUSE REGION
FLORIDA (4): As we said earlier, we are looking for the SEC to
make some noise in the tournament, and no one in that conference is playing
better ball than the Gators right now. Florida is 10-2 S/U since leading scorer
Matt Walsh returned from injury, winning those games by an average of 11.1 points.
They have met Kentucky three times during this stretch, and after losing by just
three points at Lexington, the Gators won the last two meetings with the Wildcats
including a 17-point annihilation in the SEC Championship Game. A case can be made
that Florida was actually shafted by getting a four seed while Kentucky got a two,
but regardless, we would not be shocked if this team ruined a ton of brackets by
going all the way to the Final Four!
IOWA STATE (9): College Basketball is much more dependent on good
guard play than the NBA, and the Cyclones have one of the most underrated
backcourts in the entire country. Curtis Stinson is as quick as any guard in the
land and he has already surpassed the 1000-point plateau despite being just a
sophomore. More importantly, he led the Clones in steals, and spearheaded a defense
that held its opponents to below 40 % shooting from the floor a remarkable
26 times this season. Throw in the dribble penetration ability of two guard Will
Blalock, and this may turn out to be the toughest match-up for North Carolina in
the Syracuse Region. If ISU can overcome the fact that their potential second
round match-up with Carolina would be played in Charlotte, look out!
AUSTIN REGION
SYRACUSE (4): This is the team that NOBODY wants to face in the later
rounds, and understandably so. The Orange are very experienced as they still have
some important holdovers from the national championship team a few years ago, and
they enter this tournament with some nice momentum. The Cuse finished at 27-6
overall, won the Big East Tournament, and have won 5 of their last 6 games overall
while their stifling zone defense allowed just 62.8 points per game in the five
wins. Their experience edge may play a large part if they get matched up with Duke
in the third round, which most people expect.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (9): On the other hand, we are not most people, and
we do not think it is a foregone conclusion that Duke will easily get by this
Mississippi State team in round two! Once again, the pride of the SEC is at stake,
and although the Bulldogs were considered a disappointment at 22-10 given their
pre-season expectations, this is still pretty much the same club that made a nice
NCAA run last year. This veteran crew is led by probable NBA Lottery pick Lawrence
Roberts, who presents a match-up nightmare for even a defense as great as Duke. If
Roberts can get just some marginal help from the periphery players, it just may be
this Mississippi State team that topples the top-seeded Blue Devils much earlier
than expected in the Second Round.
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